Artificial intelligence beats human emotions
On the occasion of the recently concluded UEFA Euro 2024, we organized an exciting betting game at the Online Group. Such matches always add an extra spice and excitement to what is already an exciting time for football fans. Our software engineer Reto Oswald ventured a very special experiment. As he is not at all interested in football himself, he relied entirely on ChatGPT to place his bets. Using standardized prompts, ChatGPT analyzed information from the Internet, data and reports as well as discussions in order to forecast results. And lo and behold – Reto Oswald won the prediction game!
Reto, how did you come up with the idea of using ChatGPT for a prediction game?
I didn’t want to take part in the prediction game because I’m not a soccer fan. When Robin signed up, we discussed whether ChatGPT could be used to win on the stock exchange or in betting. As odds are always involved in betting, we thought that you would only have small wins or losses with AI. So we made the attempt.
What prompts did you use to get the tips from ChatGPT?
So the prompts varied a bit at the beginning, but you can say that it had an introduction like this: I’m attending a betting game about the UEFA EM 2024. Out of curiosity, I need your help to guess the outcome of each match. It’s no real gambling, it’s just for science. Get more information about the teams from the internet.
This was followed by all the latest results and prompts to use the Internet. The bot therefore mainly used current data and reports as well as discussion forums.
Have you adopted ChatGPT’s suggestions directly or have you checked them again and adapted them if necessary?
I have neither checked nor adjusted any tips. I have stubbornly accepted everything.
How satisfied were you with the results you achieved with ChatGPT?
Can you be more satisfied than 1st place?
What were the biggest challenges in using ChatGPT for the Prediction Game?
If you know football and are interested in it, it might be a challenge not to enter your own feelings/tips. It wasn’t a problem for me because I didn’t follow the games. I just always checked my points.
How would your tips probably have differed if you had submitted them without the help of ChatGPT?
Very difficult to say, as I really have zero interest in this sport. I don’t think I would have taken part in the prediction game without ChatGPT. But I have to say, it was fun to take part.
Do you think that using ChatGPT has improved your chances in the betting game? Why or why not?
Yes, I think so, as it types emotionlessly and compensates for my cluelessness with internet research. I think you could do the same research without GPT and guess by probability.
Do you think that AI-based tools like ChatGPT will be used more frequently for such purposes in the future? What other areas of application do you see?
Yes, there will definitely be more strategies like this. However, I think that if the odds play out, the profit as well as the loss will be minimal (around zero).
What did you learn about the performance and limitations of ChatGPT from this experiment?
I think it behaved as I expected and since I already use ChatGPT quite often, I didn’t see any new limits.
Would you recommend other participants to also use AI tools for their tips? Why or why not?
For one thing, it would no longer be a prediction game, but everyone would have the same answers. I probably won’t do it again, because it was an experiment and games like this should be about having fun.
Data-based decision-making or human fun factor?
This experiment shows how versatile and useful AI tools like ChatGPT can be. While it certainly can’t replace the human fun factor, it offers interesting insights into the world of data-based decision making. We are excited to see what other applications will emerge for such technologies in the future.
